兩岸談判可行性分析—兩岸談判障礙
與策略選擇

 程長志

 慈濟技術學院通識教育中心副教授

 摘  要

 過去五十多年裡，海峽兩岸有衝突、危機以及遲滯，在1970年代兩岸有了接觸甚至談判。不幸的是自李登輝發表兩國論，中共即中斷了兩岸談判。2000年民進黨執政，否定了所謂的「一個中國」的共識，中共再度拒絕了談判與對話。

 本論文主要目的在僵局中找出可行的策略模式，依據（Roy J. Lewick, Alexander Hiam）等人的論點，為了關係與結果有不同的策略選擇：規避、和解、競爭、合作，以及妥協之模式。在分析了這些模式後或許能找出解決兩岸僵局的參考架構。當臺灣面臨國際困境與大陸的威脅，臺灣應選擇有利而非固守唯一的模式。

 關鍵詞：談判、零和、衝突、策略

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A Feasibility Study on the Cross-Strait Negotiation—Current Obstacles and Strategic Choices in the Cross-Strait Negotiation

 Chang-Chih Cheng

 General Education Center Tzu Chi College of Technology

 Abstract

 In the past fifty years, there have been different stages in the across-strait: military conflicst, crises, and stands. In the 1970s, Taipei and Beijing began to have contact, exchange and negotiation. Unfortunately, since the former president Lee Teng-hui（李登輝） made the "special state-to-state relations" dictum, PRC broke off negotiation with Taiwan immediately. When DPP came into power in 2000, president Chen Shui-bian （陳水扁） denied that there has ever been any so-called one china consensus. Thus PRC continued to refuse to negotiate again. At present the cross-strait relations remains deadlocked and there is no sign of loosening up in the near future.

 The purpose of this paper is for finding a possible, strategic model to settle the present impasse. In accordance with Roy J Lewick, Alexander Hiam and Karen Wise Olande’ points of augment, to maintain relationship and obtain outcome can select different strategic choice: avoiding, accommodating, competitive, collaborative, and compromising. After analyzing various strategic choices, we expect that these discussed models can provide a referent formula to settle the current cross-strait deadlock. While facing the international predicament and mainland threats, should adopt more advantageous models for its own benefit, instead of sticking to one single policy to deal with the cross-strait negotiation.

 Keywords: negotiation, zero-sum, conflict, strategy

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